Hello everyone,
Hello everyone,
You probably heard that Lovable announced they stopped pushing for subscriptions and prioritized the top-up move instead. You didn't see me at the moment, but if you could I'd be screaming «I TOLD YOU SO» so loud, you'd go deaf.
Here's what nobody wants to admit: users expect subscriptions the same way they expect ads on YouTube. They tolerate them. They don't prefer them.
And for products with volatile usage, subscriptions don't just reduce conversion - they create a barrier that non-recurring payments don't.
Let's dive in.
The Ghosted Moment
This might sound ridiculous, but it happens all the time:
Teams crushing it on product-market fit. Stellar trial engagement. Users clearly getting value during their 14 days.
Then they hit the subscription paywall and... ghost.
Here's how it usually plays out:
You design your trial to deliver value before asking for money.
You track activation: created X, connected Y, completed onboarding.
You celebrate when users hit those targets.
Then those same "activated" users see $20/month... and disappear.
Teams often interpret this as: "They didn't see enough value."
But the truth is bigger:
They saw value. They just can't commit to paying for it every month when they don't know if they'll need it every month.
One question to ask your team if you are battling the same problem:
What percentage of our "activated" trial users actually convert to paid? If it's under 15%, the barrier might not be value - it might be the commitment structure.
What’s Behind It
Right before someone decides whether to subscribe, they're trying to answer three questions.
1) "Can I predict I'll use this enough every month?"
For products with daily usage - email, project management, CRM - this question is easy. Yes, obviously.
For products with volatile usage - AI coding tools, creative software, seasonal analysis - this question is impossible.
Users genuinely don't know if they'll need it next month. Maybe they ship hard for a week, then nothing for two months. Maybe usage depends on client projects they haven't landed yet.
Subscriptions force prediction. "Will I use this 7+ times per month to justify $20?" Can't confidently say yes? They bounce.
One-time purchases or credits eliminate the question. Pay when you need it. No prediction required.
2) "Am I paying now for value I'll get later?"
Research on magazine subscriptions showed that publications offering future-oriented value (career skills, investment advice) needed different pricing strategies than magazines with immediate content.
The mechanism: present bias. Humans apply a psychological penalty to decisions with immediate costs and delayed benefits.
Subscriptions hit this directly. Pay now ($20 immediate), get value... later, if you use it, maybe.
When value is uncertain or spread over time, this creates hesitation.
One-time purchases or credits pair payment with immediate access. You pay, you get the thing, done. No temporal gap.
3) "Am I permanently changing my financial baseline?"
Status quo bias research showed people sacrifice 37.8% of total value just to avoid changing their current state.
Before signup, the status quo is "no recurring payment."
A subscription isn't just $20 - it represents a permanent baseline shift in their financial life. New line item. New thing to remember to cancel. New monthly commitment.
One-time purchases are discrete events. You transact, you're done, baseline unchanged.
Users also know subscriptions are easy to start, hard (impossible sometimes) to stop. That pre-experienced future hassle shows up as hesitation right now.
How to Turn It Around
Lovable in general, made a huge bet on the engagement. I wrote about it in the issue last week. An top-ups fit this strategy perfectly. It won’t work for everyone, though. Here’s how to see if it’s the right fit for you.
1) "Can I predict I'll use this enough every month?"
Subscriptions force prediction. Will I need this 7 times this month? 10 times? Enough to justify $20?
For volatile-usage products - AI coding tools, creative software, seasonal analysis - users genuinely don't know. Some weeks you ship hard. Other weeks, nothing. Usage depends on client projects you haven't landed yet.
So they bounce at the paywall.
Credits/top-ups eliminate the prediction.
You're not committing to monthly usage. You're buying capacity when you need it.
Lovable lets users top up credits. Usage is bursty? That's fine - buy credits when you have a project, use them when you need them.
The question changes from "will I use this enough for 12 months?" to "do I need this right now?"
Much easier yes.
2) "Am I paying now for value I'll get later?"
Subscriptions create a temporal gap: pay $20 now, get value... maybe later, if you use it.
Present bias kicks in. Humans apply a psychological penalty to immediate costs with delayed benefits. Research shows we need roughly $4 more in future value just to overcome the bias.
Credits couple payment with usage better because they feel like the immediate solution to the immediate problem.
You pay when you're actively working. Not betting on hypothetical future usage.
When I top up in Lovable, it's because I'm building something right now. Payment and value received happen in the same moment. No gap, no penalty.
3) "Am I permanently changing my financial baseline?"
Before signup, the status quo is "no recurring payment."
A subscription isn't just $20 - it's a permanent baseline shift. New line item. New thing to remember to cancel. Research shows people sacrifice 37.8% of value just to avoid changing their current state.
Top-ups are transactions, not commitments.
Buy credits when you need them. No recurring billing. No "remember to cancel." No baseline shift.
And crucially: credits don't expire. It's discrete. You transact, you use it when needed, done.
If you forget everything, remember this:
For products with volatile usage, subscriptions force users to predict the unpredictable - make the model more flexible and watch conversion double.
🎉 Woow, you finished the issue, that’s awesome!
Hi, I’m Anastasia Kudrow, and I write Ghosted.
I am also a product growth consultant. I help SaaS teams apply psychology and PLG to build growth they can actually control. I run my own project, Growing Pains, and also work with one of the leading PLG consulting agencies, ProductLed, led by Wes Bush.
Feel free to follow me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anastasia-kudrow/
Or check out my website, maybe we can work together: https://www.growingpains.consulting/
See you next week!
